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Obesity and Being Overweight to Plateau by 2030

Jul 4, 2013

A new dynamic model capable of predicting overweight, obesity and extreme obesity trends shows….

The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence.


The goal for this study was to examine obesity prevalence in the United States which appears to be improving; however, the reasons behind the plateau in US obesity remain unknown.

The main purpose of this study was to model known multiple population parameters that correlate with changes in body mass index and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau and eventually decrease. Benefits from this study will allow healthcare professionals to set the stage for large population weight loss and decreased complications, comorbidities and costs.

An equation was developed to predict population-wide obesity occurrence and trends. The model considers both social and non-social influences on weight gain and incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends.

The differential equation developed by the researchers showed that obesity prevalence is a function of birth rate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment. The researchers concluded that obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies and the US prevalence of obesity, overweight, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9%, respectively.

The final analysis of the results suggested that the prevalence of obesity is becoming more consistent and will eventually plateau. This prediction from the researchers will be independent of typical preventative strategies. Identifying this trend will hopefully assist in correctly evaluating the effect of different anti-obesity programs aimed at decreasing the occurrence of obesity.

Marion, Weedermann, Thomas Dianne, et al. "Dynamic model predicting overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity prevalence trends." (2013): Web. 1 Jul. 2013. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/oby.20520/abstract;jsessionid=5B49C172D0625DB15D80C7F3BC564E3D.d02t02