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Mortality Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

May 23, 2013
 

New predictive model for all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes….

Two cohorts of patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) from the Gargano Mortality Study (GMS) and the Foggia Mortality Study (FMS) were prospectively followed-up for 7.4 and 4.5, years respectively, to assess all-cause mortality. Follow-up was performed in order to develop and validate a model for predicting short-term all-cause mortality in patients with T2DM.

The GMS study included 1,028 whites from Italy with T2DM who were recruited between November 1, 2000 and September 30, 2005. The FMS study included 1,153 whites from Italy that were recruited between January 7, 2002 and September 30, 2008. The only exclusion criterion in these studies was malignancies that may result in poor life expectancy. In addition, the present study excluded patients who did not have vital status information available or who had missing baseline features in their data, leaving 679 patients from the GMS study and 936 patients from the FMS study, with T2DM to be eligible for the current analysis.

The only end point in the present study was all-cause mortality. Vital status of patients was obtained through follow-up telephone interviews conducted by two authors for each study, or by the registry office of cities of residence. Vital status and date of death were checked and recorded between November 1st and the 30th of 2010 for the GMS study and between March 1st and 31st of 2011 for the FMS study.

Results from GMS revealed that 19.6% (133) patients died with an annual incidence rate of 2.7%. The FMS results displayed 18% (169) patients deceased with an annual incidence rate of 4.0%.

With the data provided, authors of the present study created a predictive model for all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes which includes the following nine variables: age, BMI, diastolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, urine-albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and antihypertensive and insulin therapy.

A web-based risk calculator was also developed and is easily accessible to health care practitioners at the following link: http://www.operapadrepio.it/rcalc/rcalc.php.

Development and validation of a predicting model of all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Diabetes Care, May 1, 2013, doi: 10.2337/dc12-1906