|
Item #8.
Projection of Diabetes
Through 2050
Dramatic
Increase are Projected
OBJECTIVE-To
project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S.
through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes
prevalence rates.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We combined age-,
sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence
rates—predicted from 1980–1998 trends in prevalence data from the
National Health Interview Survey—with Bureau of Census population
demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by
varying both prevalence rate and population projections.
RESULTS-The number of Americans with diagnosed
diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000
(prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%).
The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among
those aged ≥75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The
fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected
to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females
(+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following.
Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of
diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic
composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to
increasing prevalence rates.
CONCLUSIONS-If recent trends in diabetes
prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future
changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S.
population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of
Americans with diagnosed diabetes.
================================
Did You Know:
A staggering
61%
of American adults currently meet the scientific definition of
overweight or obesity, putting them at increased risk of heart
disease, diabetes, stroke, arthritis, depression and several forms
of cancer.
Back / Next Item
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
|
